NFL Over/Under betting is a great way to make a football game even more enjoyable, but it can also be very profitable if you know what you’re doing.

The first thing you need to know is that the value is almost always with the Under. Sportsbooks know that the public loves to cheer for points, so Over/Unders in the NFL are often inflated (especially in prime time games) as the oddsmakers know most bettors will bet over whatever number they post.

This formula will always give you a part of your money back, even if you predicted all of your games wrong?!Look how I developed this unique way of sports b. Manage Your Bankroll and Create a Unit Size. It’s integral that, as a sports bettor, you decide how.

Blindly betting Unders every game won’t be enough to line your wallet, however. Here are 10 other NFL Over/Under betting tips to help you successfully bet on totals.

1. Look at Points For and Against for Each Team

The first thing you should do when capping NFL totals is come up with a preliminary total of your own to see where the value is.

The simplest and quickest way to do this is by adding the average points for and against of each team, then dividing that total by 2. For example, if the Patriots are scoring 34 points per game and allowing 17, and the Saints are scoring 24 per game and allowing 23, your math should look like this: (34+17+24+23)/2 = 98/2 = 49. Based on the points each team is scoring and allowing per game, the Over/Under should be around 49.

For a more accurate projection, consider eliminating the highest-scoring and lowest-scoring games from each team’s season so far, then doing the math over again. By not including outliers in your equations, you won’t let the rare game when a team scores 50 points or shuts out its opponent skew your projections. After all, you’re more interested in each team’s typical performance than a simple average of what they’ve done this year.

2. Know How Offenses and Defenses Match up

Alright, now that we’ve got a loose estimate of what the Over/Under should be, it’s time to dig deeper.

Offensive and defensive co-ordinators are always trying to identify mismatches and exploit them, and that’s what you should be doing too. If an offense that regularly marches the ball up and down the field is facing a defense that hemorrhages yards, you can expect that offense to have a great performance and light up the scoreboard. And if a defense is playing like a brick wall, an offense that struggles to move the chains is likely going to have even more trouble than usual.

To take that a step further, look at each team’s rushing and passing yards per game on both offense and defense, since teams are often much stronger in one area than another. A great offense that thrives on the running game may struggle against an average defense that excels stopping the run but is mediocre against the pass.

3. Use Yards Per Play

An underrated key to betting Over/Under is the yards per play metric. You can use this to measure each team’s explosivity on both sides of the ball.

Basically, when you’re betting on an Over, the clock is your enemy. The more plays a team has to run to gain a first down, the less time there is to score points. So before you bet an Over, make sure that the teams have the capability to score or allow points quickly. If there are a few drives that end in punts or turnovers, you’ll want the possibility that a team throws a 50-yard touchdown in order to get the scoring back on pace.

If you’ve got an Under ticket, that clock can’t move fast enough. You want to bet on Unders in games involving teams that don’t make or allow the big play with consistency. If a defense keeps the play in front of them and forces the offense to grind out first downs instead of allowing quick strikes, the seconds will melt off the clock.

4. Remember Red Zone Efficiency

Another factor in NFL Over/Under betting that often flies under the radar is each team’s efficiency in the red zone, on both sides of the ball.

Nothing can kill an Over bet faster than a long, methodical drive by the offense that moves consistently down the field, then bogs down inside the 20-yard line and needs to settle for a field goal instead of scoring a touchdown. In fact, whether teams score touchdowns or kick field goals can often be the difference between the game going Over or Under, since TDs are worth twice as much as field goals (even more when you add in the converts).

Though luck can play a big part of a team’s success or struggles in the red zone, there are also other factors that can contribute. When the play moves inside the 20-yard line, it’s less space for the defense to have to cover. This hurts offenses that rely on long passes and the big play, but favors attacks that can grind out 3 yards on the ground, even when defenses know the run is coming.

5. Be Aware of Home/Road Splits

Of the 4 major professional sports in North America, the NFL ranks behind just the NBA when it comes to home field advantage.

Whether it’s because of crowd noise, favorable officiating or simply a comfort level with playing at home, NFL teams won nearly 57% of their home games from 2011-15.

Playing at home or on the road clearly has an impact on how teams perform, so it only makes sense that it also affects their success on offense and defense. For example, the Steelers are a much worse Over bet when they’re playing on the road than at home because Ben Roethlisberger has been awful over the past 3 seasons when playing away from Heinz Field.

Make sure you know how each team typically plays at home or on the road before pulling the trigger on your Over/Under bet.

6. Factor In The Weather

Weather often plays a major role in determining the way a football game is played and even the outcome.

Every December, we hear how warm-weather teams usually struggle when playing in frigid conditions in places like Green Bay, Buffalo and New England. Extreme cold weather can make the football feel like a rock, making it difficult for quarterbacks to grip the ball properly or receivers to pull it in without having it bounce off their chest.

Rain and snow can also wreak havoc on offenses, making the ball slippery and hard to control. However, a wet or slippery field can also hurt defenses, who don’t know where the offensive player is going and may lose their footing trying to keep up with them.

But the biggest, most important weather condition that affects football totals is the wind. A strong gust can throw off the flight of the ball and turn a perfect long bomb into an interception. It can also add or take off 20 yards on a punt or kickoff, which drastically changes field position.

When the weather forecast is calling for extremely windy conditions, either look to bet the Under or make sure the offenses you are betting on are very capable of moving the ball on the ground.

7. Don’t Forget About Injuries

When most bettors hear about injuries, they only think about how it will impact the point spread or who will win the game. However, injuries can also create some big value in Over/Under betting.

Even the absence of a star offensive lineman can make teams struggle to run the ball effectively or protect their quarterback long enough to complete a pass. If a defense is missing its stud cornerback, that can open the door for the opposing offense to target his replacement with deep ball after deep ball.

Check out the injury report to see who’s playing and who’s not, and try to predict how those injuries will impact each team’s offensive and defensive success.

8. Be Aware of the Point Spread

The point spread can give you a pretty good indication of how a game will be played, which is an important element of betting on Over/Under.

For example, if a team is likely to blow out its opponent, there really isn’t much motivation for the favorite to keep scoring throughout the game. They might simply look to build an early lead, then go into conservative mode for the second half or even put in their backups to protect against injury.

When a team has a big lead in football, they often start running the ball more, quickly taking time off the clock. The team that is trailing can also become much more predictable, throwing the ball almost every down in an effort to get back into the game as quickly as possible.

Generally, for a game to go Over the total, you’ll need both offenses to contribute to the scoring. Look to avoid betting Overs on games with high point spreads, and understand that Unders can be dangerous in games that are expected to be close because of the possibility of lots of points late in the fourth quarter or overtime.

9. Know the Key Numbers and Get the Best Number

How Do I Win A Football Bet Every Time

Most Over/Under totals in the NFL are in the 40s, though there are times that you’ll see totals in the 30s and 50s. Occasionally, you’ll even see an Over/Under eclipse 60.

When point totals are that high, you may not think half a point means much. But it absolutely does. That simple half of a point can be the difference between a win and a push, or a push and a loss.

That’s even more true when you’re dealing with key numbers in NFL Over/Under betting. The most common number of points scored in NFL games are (in order) 41, 43, 37, 44, 51, 33 and 47, so do your best to make sure you’re getting on the right side of these numbers whenever possible. For example, betting Over 40.5 is a much better wager than betting Over 41.5, since so many games end with exactly 41 points scored.

You can get the best number by monitoring the Over/Under totals throughout the week and placing your bet when the total gets to a number that you like. It’s also smart to have accounts at several different reputable sportsbooks that you trust, since sportsbooks often vary in the betting lines that they post.

10. Consider Live Betting

One final tip for NFL Over/Under betting success is to utilize live betting. It’ll allow you to see how the teams are playing, and it will enable you to take advantage of fast or slow starts by the offense that can move the live betting total into a range that you like.

There may be 60 points scored in an NFL game, but there won’t be 1 point scored every minute, or even 7 points scored in every 7 minutes. Scoring in the NFL often comes in bunches, so it can be wise to bet the Over on the live odds after a scoreless first quarter, or bet on the Under after the teams combine to score 3 touchdowns in 5 minutes.

You can also try to understand each team’s mentality as the game goes along, and place your live bets accordingly. As I said earlier, a team that has a big lead will start running the ball more and looking to kill the clock, which favors a live bet on the Under. If a team that is usually conservative finds itself in an early hole, they will get more aggressive and try to speed the game up, which you can take advantage of with an Over bet on the live odds.

If you’re new to football betting and keen to get involved
then you’ve just come to exactly the right place. On this page
we will teach you all the basics of betting on football, and
make sure that you are on the right track from the moment you
place your first wager. If you feel like you’re ready to dive right in, here are the top football betting sites we recommend:

In our opinion this is one of the most useful beginner’s
guides to football betting you’ll find anywhere on the internet.
It covers everything you need to get started, and yet you don’t
need to worry about getting overwhelmed with detail as we keep
our explanations as simple as possible.

For those who are only really interested in wagering for a
bit of fun, you’ll be ready to go as soon as you’ve finished
reading this page. For those of you with ambitions of making
long term profits, we also point you towards a wide range of
additional information and advice that will help you to achieve
such goals. We’re not promising that we’ll make you an instant
expert, but we’ll certainly give you the chance to become one.

If you’re simply just looking to bet on football games right now we have
listed our top recommendations for online betting sites below. These
are sites that we have found to be trustworthy with our money and
offer football bettors true value.

We recommend reading through this whole page from start to
finish, but we’ve listed the various topics we cover below if
you’d prefer to skip straight to something specific.

How to Bet on Football: Page Contents

Before You Start: Recommended Reading

If you’re already familiar with how sports betting works, and
know a thing or two about football, then please feel free to
skip this section. If, however, you’re completely new to sports
betting and/or not much of a football fan, then there are a few
things you should learn before you start placing bets on
football games.

Firstly you really need to understand the basics of what
sports betting is all about, and what’s involved with placing
wagers. These basics are relatively straightforward, so
thankfully it doesn’t take long to get up to speed. It’s
definitely advisable to familiarize yourself with them though.
Our beginner’s guide to sports betting is the perfect resource
for this. Here’s a selection of some of the topics it covers.

In addition to knowing the basics of betting, you should also
know at least the basics of football too. It’s likely that most
people reading this are big sports fans, and fully understand
it, but that’s not necessarily the case for all our readers. We
like to cater for everyone, so we’ve written the following two
articles explaining all about the game at both professional and
college level.

Different Types of Football Bets

One of the first things you should understand about betting
on football is the fact that there are several different types
of wagers that can be placed. You won’t necessarily use all the
different types, depending on what strategies you employ, but
it’s still advisable to learn at least a little about each one.

Below we look at the two most popular types of wagers, some
of the other commonly used options, and the various options for
wagering on multiple games with a single bet.

The Most Popular Types of Football Bets

There are two types of football bets that are used far more
than any other. Many people who bet on football place only the
following wagers.

• Point Spreads
• Totals

Some readers will already know all about these and how they
work, but we’ll explain a little about them for those that
don’t.

Point Spreads

A point spread is effectively a handicap that’s used to
create a 50/50 wagering proposition. For example, a bookmaker
may offer the following point spread on a football match between
the San Diego Chargers and the Indianapolis Colts.

What this spread means is that, for the purposes of wagering,
the Chargers will have 3.5 points deducted from their final
score. For a bet on them to be successful, they would therefore
have to win by four points or more. The Colts, on the other
hand, will have 3.5 points added to their final score. A bet on
them would be successful if they won the game, or lost by 3
points or less.

You can read more about point spreads on the following page.

Totals

Totals are just as easy to understand. With these, the
bookmaker posts an expected total for the amount of points
scored by both sides. On the previously mentioned match between
the Chargers and the Colts, for example, they might set the
total at 48.50. You then have to decide whether to bet on the
over or the under.

A wager on the over will win if the combined score from the
two teams is 49 or over (e.g. Chargers 29, Colts 24). A wager on
the under will win if the combined score from the two teams is
48 or less (e.g. Chargers 19, Colts 17).

We explain totals in more detail on the following page.

College Football Betting Lines Today

Before we go onto explain some of the other types of wagers
you can place, there’s some very important information that we
need to mention.

The basic principle of point spreads and totals is that you
have roughly a 50% chance of winning, so technically a “fair”
return on these types of wagers should be equal to the amount
staked. However, they are usually priced up by bookmakers at
odds of -110 (1.91 in decimal odds format, 10/11 in fractional
odds format), which means for every $110 staked you stand to win
$100. You don’t have to stake as much as $110 of course, but the
point is that a successful wager will only return 90% of the
amount staked (plus the initial stake of course).

This is because bookmakers are in business to make a profit,
so they effectively charge a commission for taking wagers. This
commission is known as the vig, short for vigorish, and it’s one
of the ways that bookmakers stay profitable. They don’t charge
it just for points spreads and totals either, as it’s built into
the odds for every wager that they offer.

If you have any ambitions of being a
successful bettor, we strongly recommend reading our article
explaining vig and how bookmakers make money.

Other Common Football Bets

In addition to point spreads and totals, there are three
other types of bets that are commonly used for wagering on
football. These are as follows.

• Moneylines
• Props
• Futures

We’ll now provide a brief overview of each of these, and
point you towards some additional information on each one too.

Moneylines

A moneyline wager is very simple. It involves simply backing
a team to win a match, with no point spread involved. The odds
for moneyline wagers are based on each team’s relative chance of
winning. For example, the moneyline on a game between the San
Diego Chargers and the Indianapolis Colts might look like this.

The Chargers are the favorites here, and the odds of -175
mean that a stake of $175 is required to win $100. To put it
another way, every $1.75 staked stands to win $1 if the Chargers
win. Initial stakes are returned too of course.

The Colts are the underdogs, so backing them means the
potential for higher payouts relative to the amount staked. The
odds of +155 mean that every $1 staked stands to win $1.55 if
the Colts win (i.e. a $100 wager stands to win $155 if the Colts
win). Again, initial stakes are also returned.

For more information on moneylines, and the strategy involved
in placing them, please see the following article.

Props

Props, short for propositions, are wagers on outcomes that
are decided during a football game, but are not necessarily
directly linked to the final result. Some examples include the
following.

• The first team to score.
• The distance of the longest touchdown.
• The total passing yards of a quarterback.
• The number of field goals kicked.

These are just a very small selection of some props. Many
bookmakers offer dozens of different options, particularly on
high profile matches. Props are generally considered a fun type
of bet rather than a way to make money, but it is possible to
make consistent profits from them. We explain more about props
on the following page, where we also offer some strategy advice.

Futures

Futures are wagers on how teams, or individual players, will
fare over the course of an entire season. A wager on a team to
win the Super Bowl, placed at the start of the season, would be
considered a future. So would a wager on a team to be the
National Football Conference champions, or a wager on a player
to win the Most Valuable Player award.

There isn’t a lot more to explain about futures, and there
isn’t really much in the way of specific strategy for them
either. We do go into a bit more detail on them on the following
page though.

Betting on Multiple Football Games

A lot of people like to bet on multiple games at once, as
this can provide the potential for big payouts. It’s not
something we particularly advise beginners to get involved with,
but it doesn’t hurt to understand the options available. The
main ones are as follows.

• Parlays
• Teasers
• Pleasers

Let’s take a quick look at what these are all about.

Parlays

A parlay basically combines several different wagers into
one. For example, a parlay could be made up of five point spread
wagers on five separate games. The payout for such a wager could
be very attractive, but only if ALL the wagers were correct.
Just one wrong pick would mean the whole wager failing. That’s
why these are considered quite risky. They’re a bit more complex
than the previous wagers mentioned, but we won’t go into any
more detail here. We do on the following page though.

Teasers & Pleasers

Teasers and pleasers are essentially types of parlays that
use modified point spreads or totals. With teasers, the spreads
or totals are moved in the bettor’s favor. With pleasers, they
are moved in the bookmaker’s favor. There’s plenty more to
explain about these wagers, which we do on the following pages.

Where to Place Your Football Bets

Now that you know about the different wagers you can place on
football, the next step is actually placing them. The question
you’re probably asking now is “how and where can I do this?”
There are a few options, which we list below, but please be
aware that not all of these are available in all parts of the
world.

• Casino Sportsbooks
• Bookmaking Shops
• Telephone Betting
• Online Sports Betting Sites

Casino Sportsbooks

How To Succeed In Football Betting Teams

Many casinos around the world contain a sportsbook. They
usually feature several big screen TVs showing any live sports
action currently taking place, and computerized odds boards
displaying all the latest odds. There are typically cashier
windows where you can place your wagers with a real person, but
some books have interactive machines instead. Either way, these
are great places to place some bets and watch the games at the
same time. The problem for Americans, though, is that they are
only legal in Nevada. There are plenty of sportsbooks in Las
Vegas casinos, but not in other parts of the country.

Bookmaking Shops

Bookmaking shops are mostly like sportsbooks, they’re just
not inside a casino. They also generally have lots of TVs
showing sports, and a counter where wagers are placed. These
shops can be found in many countries around the world, but
they’re not legal in the United States.

Telephone Betting

A lot of bookmakers offer telephone betting services, and
they are usually very straightforward to use. It’s a simple
matter of calling the relevant number, telling the operator you
reach which wagers you want to place, confirming the odds, and
then providing your credit card details. Some bookmakers take
other payment methods too, and some even offer credit lines to
select customers.

This is another option that’s not available to Americans. Not
legally at least, as the Federal Wire Act of 1961 made telephone
betting illegal. You might be getting disheartened by now if you
live in the US, and wondering exactly how you’re ever going to
place any wagers. Don’t worry though, as we have one more option
to tell you about.

Online Sports Betting Sites

Using an online sports betting site is far and away the best
way to bet on football, or any sport for that matter. It’s the
most convenient and accessible option, and there are several
other advantages too. Best of all, it’s legal in the United
States. There are some laws against online gambling in the US,
but these mostly apply to companies and individuals providing
gambling services. There’s no law that states it’s illegal to
use a gambling site of any kind, so Americans are at liberty to
place football bets online if they so choose. We’ve written the
following page explaining things in more detail for those
interested, or you can just keep reading for a quick guide to
getting started online.

Using Online Betting Sites

Using sports betting sites to bet on football online is
relatively straightforward. It’s super easy to open accounts at
most sites, and the majority of them are very user-friendly.
Finding and placing wagers generally takes no time at all, and
can be done from the comfort of your own home with just a
computer and internet access. You can even use most sites from a
smartphone or tablet these days.

Please make sure that you use the right sites though. Most
places are pretty good, but there are some that are best
avoided. It’s vital that you use a safe and trustworthy option,
and you also want to use somewhere that is suitable for
football. We suggest taking a look at the following sites.

Our Top Ranked Football Betting Sites: