Oscars Betting

  
Oscars Betting Average ratng: 3,6/5 1466 votes
  1. Oscar's Grind is a betting strategy used by gamblers on wagers where the outcome is evenly distributed between two results of equal value (like flipping a coin, betting on red or black in roulette, etc.). It is an archetypal positive progression strategy. It is also called Hoyle's Press.
  2. View the latest odds on Academy Awards Matches & Bet with Sportsbet. Join Australia's Favourite Online Betting and Entertainment Website.

In 2019, the New Jersey Division of Gaming Enforcement gave sportsbooks the all-clear to accept wagers on the Oscars. It was an unforged territory for regulated US sports betting, to great success. New Jersey was the only state that offered legal Oscar betting last year, but Indiana joined the party in 2020. The Oscars 2021 Outrights Betting & Odds What will be the outcome of the The Oscars 2021?! Get a bet on with Paddy! Check out the odds on our The Oscars 2021 - Best Adapted Screenplay page, and show your special bets knowledge. What are the odds on the Best Adapted Screenplay? It looks like Nomadland has the best chance, at odds of 4/9.

Introduction

Oscar's Grind is a popular betting system. It is generally played on even money bets with a specified winning goal. Like most betting system, it usually achieves this goal, but at the expense of a large loss when it doesn't. Like every betting system, it can not pass the test of time and will eventually show a net loss.

Unlike most betting systems, like the Martingale, Labouchere or Fibonacci, the player will press his bets after winning, as opposed to losing. It also does not escalate the bet size as fast as these other systems, making it more of a 'grind' to achieve the winning goal. This causes the chances of reaching the winning goal to be less than more aggressive systems, but also allows the player to play longer and at a smaller average bet.

Overall, Oscar's Grind will tend to win in a streaky game and do badly in a choppy game.

Rules

The following is how to play Oscar's Grind on even money bets.

  1. The player will define his winning goal and bankroll.
  2. The player shall define his 'unit size' equal to his winning goal.
  3. The player makes a one-unit bet.
  4. If the player ties, then he repeats the same bet.
  5. Otherwise, if the last bet results is a win and the player has achieved his winning goal, then he walks away happy.
  6. Otherwise, if the player wins but has not achieved his winning goal, then he increases his bet size by one unit.*/**
  7. Otherwise, the player keeps the bet size the same.**
  8. The player bets.
  9. Go back to rule 4, until the player either achieves his winning goal or loses his entire bankroll.

*: If such an increase in bet would cause the player to overshoot his winning goal if he wins, then drop the bet size to whatever would result in achieving exactly the winning goal the next bet.
**: If the player does not have enough money to make the next bet, then drop the bet size to whatever money the player has left.

Simulation Results

To show what to expect from using Oscar's Grind, I wrote a simulation that followed the rules above, based on various bets and games. The simulation used a Mersenne Twister random number generator. For each simulation, the winning goal was ten units. I tested the simulation on the following bankrolls: 10, 25, 50, 100, 250, and 500 units.

The first simulation is based on betting the Player bet in baccarat. The simulation size is over 37 billion sessions. As a reminder, the theoretical house edge on the Player bet is 1.235%.

Baccarat Simulation — Player Bet

Statistic10 Units25 Units50 Units100 Units250 Units
Probability winning goal reached90.17%95.65%97.69%98.77%99.46%
Average number of bets4.7365.6976.2306.6467.067
Average units bet6.62610.60914.55719.60928.650
Expected win per session-0.082-0.131-0.180-0.242-0.354
Ratio money lost to Money bet1.234%1.235%1.236%1.235%1.235%

The first simulation is based on betting the pass bet in craps. The simulation size is over 45 billion sessions. As a reminder, the theoretical house edge on the pass bet is 1.41%.

Craps Simulation — Pass Bet

Statistic10 Units25 Units50 Units100 Units250 Units
Probability winning goal reached90.14%95.63%97.67%98.76%99.45%
Average number of bets4.2895.1615.6456.0246.409
Average units bet6.0019.61613.20517.80426.051
Expected win per session-0.085-0.136-0.187-0.252-0.368
Ratio money lost to Money bet1.413%1.414%1.414%1.414%1.413%

The next simulation is based on the don't pass bet in craps. The simulation size was over 43 billion sessions. As a reminder, the house edge on the don't pass bet is 1.364%.

Craps Simulation — Don't Pass

Statistic10 Units25 Units50 Units100 Units250 Units
Probability winning goal reached90.14%95.64%97.68%98.76%99.46%
Average number of bets4.4105.3075.8056.1936.589
Average units bet6.1719.88713.57418.29626.768
Expected win per session-0.084-0.135-0.185-0.250-0.365
Ratio money lost to Money bet1.364%1.364%1.364%1.364%1.364%

The next simulation is based on any even money bet in single-zero roulette. The simulation size was over 43 billion sessions. As a reminder, the theoretical house edge is 1/37 = 2.703%.

Roulette Simulation — Single Zero

Statistic10 Units25 Units50 Units100 Units250 Units
Probability winning goal reached89.40%95.11%97.29%98.49%99.28%
Average number of bets4.3815.3275.8716.3146.789
Average units bet6.15610.05914.07419.41829.545
Expected win per session-0.166-0.272-0.380-0.525-0.799
Ratio money lost to Money bet2.703%2.702%2.703%2.702%2.703%

The next simulation is based on any even money bet in double-zero roulette. The simulation size was over 45 billion sessions. As a reminder, the theoretical house edge is 2/38 = 5.263%.

Roulette Simulation — Double Zero

Statistic10 Units25 Units50 Units100 Units250 Units
Probability winning goal reached87.81%93.93%96.39%97.81%98.81%
Average number of bets4.5675.6706.3506.9447.646
Average units bet6.46810.98215.94523.02637.824
Expected win per session-0.340-0.578-0.839-1.212-1.991
Ratio money lost to Money bet5.263%5.264%5.262%5.264%5.264%

Video

Here is my video on Oscar's Grind.

Internal Links

  • The Truth about Betting Systems.
  • Labouchere betting system.
  • Fibonacci betting system.
  • D'Alembert betting system.
  • Martingale betting system.
  • Keefer roulette system.

External Links

Discussion about Oscar's Grind in my forum at Wizard of Vegas.


Written by: Michael Shackleford

The 2021 Oscars is set to take place on April 25, 2021 as some sportsbooks are beginning to release early odds. In 2020, only Indiana and New Jersey allowed legal betting on the Academy Awards although there is hope more states legalize the market.

888sport, a legal US operator in the United States, also has betting shops set up overseas and they’re one of the first to open their numbers.

Along with the well-known award show, 888sport is offering other entertainment markets which includes the Grammys, Emmys and various other special markets.

What Odds Are Offered For The Oscars?

Typically, most of the big categories will see odds offered at the Academy Awards. The most popular categories include Best Picture, Best Lead Actor and Best Lead Actress.

Oscars Betting Odds

The other categories range from popular ones such as Best Supporting Actor/Actress and Best Director to the smaller-known categories such as Best Costume Design and Best Sound Mixing.

Listed below are odds per 888sport, which are always subject to change.

2021 Oscars Best Picture Odds

2021 Oscars Betting Odds
Odds To Win 2021 Oscars Best Picture
MovieOdds
Nomadland+125
Mank+500
Malcom & Marie+500
The Trial of the Chicago 7+650
Raineys Black Bottom+1000
Da 5 Bloods+1000
News of the World+1000
Judas & the Black Messiah+1000
The Midnight Sky+1000
The Father+1200
The French Dispatch+1200
West Side Story+1200
Hillbilly Elegy+1400
Minari+1400
Respect+1400
The Green Knight+1400
The U.S. vs. Billie Holiday+1400
Annette+1700
Apollo 10 1/2+1700
Berstein+2000
Cherry+2000
Deep Water+2000
Dune+2000
Greyhound+2000
In The Heights+2000
Nightmare Alley+2000
Tenet+2000
The Enterals+2000
Wonder Woman 1984+2000
BIOS+2500
I'm Thinking of Ending Things+2500
The Last Duel+2500
Blonde+3300
King Richard+3300
No Time To Die+3300
Onward+3300
Last Night In Soho+4000
On The Rocks+4000
The Hunt+4000
Ammonite+5000
Horse Girl+5000
Mulan+5000
The Devil All The Time+5000
Fantasy Island+6600
Birds of Prey+8000
Halloween Kills+8000
Top Gun: Maverick+8000
A Quiet Place II+10000
Black Widow+10000
Dolittle+10000
Sonic The Hedgehog+10000
The Falcon and the Winter Solider+10000
The Invisible Man+10000

2021 Oscars Best Leading Actor Odds

2021 Oscars Betting Odds
Odds To Win 2021 Oscars Best Actor
ActorOdds
Chadwick Boseman-400
Anthony Hopkins+350
Riz Ahmed+800
Delroy Lindo+1000
Steven Yuen+1000
Gary Oldman+1400
John David Washington+1400
Kinglsey Ben-Adir+1400
Tom Hanks+2000
Ben Affleck+2000
Lakeith Stanfield+2500
Daniel Kaluuya+2800
George Clooney+2800
Bill Murray+3300
Robert Pattinson+3300
Adam Driver+4000
Eddie Redmayne+4000

2021 Oscars Best Leading Actress Odds

2021 Oscars Betting Odds
Odds To Win 2021 Oscars Best Actress
ActorOdds
Viola Davis+120
Carey Mulligan+275
Vanessa Kirby+400
Frances McDormand+450
Sidney Flanigan+700
Zendaya+700
Andra Day+800
Sophia Loren+1000
Amy Adams+1200
Jennifer Hudson+1600
Cate Blanchett+2000
Jessica Chastain+2000
Jodie Comer+2000
Olivia Colman+2000
Kristen Stewart+2800
Nicole Kidman+3300
Renee Zellwegger+3300

Updated Mon., Feb. 8, 11:00 AM ET - Consensus Odds Provided by VI - Subject to Change

While betting on the Academy Awards or any award show is only legal in two states, these betting markets could be available any year in states with legal betting moving forward.

Betting

2021 Oscar Odds: Key Info & Categories

  • Show Date: April 25, 2021
  • Time/Network: TBD
Oscars Betting

There are currently no nominations for the 2021 Oscars, with legal sportsbooks only offering Best Picture odds. That will change as nominations are announced for various categories. Here are the categories that typically offer odds at the Oscars.

Oscars Betting
  • Best Picture
  • Best Director
  • Best Lead Actor
  • Best Lead Actress
  • Best Supporting Actor
  • Best Supporting Actress
  • Best International Feature
  • Best Original Screenplay
  • Best Adapted Screenplay
  • Best Documentary Feature
  • Best Animated Feature
  • Best Cinematography
  • Best Production Design
  • Best Film Editing
  • Best Visual Effects
  • Best Animated Short
  • Best Documentary Short
  • Best Live Action Short
  • Best Costume Design
  • Best Makeup & Hairstyle
  • Best Original Score
  • Best Original Song
  • Best Sound Editing
  • Best Sound Mixing
Odds

Be sure to continue checking back, as more odds for these categories are released.

Who Picks Oscars Winners?

The Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences picks the winners of each category for the Oscars. There are over 8,000 members that make up the organization, which comes from a variety of positions within the film industry.

The Academy is made up of 'branches'. There are specific branches, each branch having at least one category at the Oscars. The branches include:

  • Actors/Actresses
  • Writers
  • Directors
  • Producers
  • Music
  • Makeup
  • Hairstyle
  • Sound
  • Editors
  • Animation
  • Short Films
  • Visual Effects
  • Costume Designers
  • Documentary
  • Production Designers

Each branch has at least one category, in which specific branch members nominate and vote on winners. Directors nominate and vote for directors, production designers nominate and vote for other production designers, etc...

Best Picture Oscars Voting

Oscars Betting System

The Best Picture category is the only category that uses a different voting system to pick its winner. All the other categories, members get just one vote. With the Best Picture category, members rank the movies in order of preference.

This is because there are so many nominations for Best Picture now (up to nine in 2020), the Academy wanted to avoid a winner only receiving a possible 10% of votes. The system used for the Best Picture category is known as 'preferential voting'.

This system, according to Variety adds up all the No. 1 votes first. If those votes exceed 50% then the film wins, although this is apparently a very rare circumstance.

If a film that receives the most No. 1 votes is under 50%, then the counting goes to the most No. 2 votes until a film exceeds 50%. If no film has over 50% of the votes after counting all No. 1 and No. 2 votes, then the counting moves to the most No. 3 votes. This is repeated until a film goes over the 50% mark.

How to Bet on 2021 Oscars Odds

Betting on the Oscars is no different than a typical sports wager. You have your typical money-line for one favorite and multiple underdogs. This betting is most common with motorsports or golf betting, essentially 'group betting' a winner. Below is an example of what odds looked liked for one of last year's categories.

Vegas Odds Oscars 2017

2020 Best Picture Odds

  • 1917 (-167)
  • Parasite (+200)
  • Once Upon A Time In Hollywood (+950)
  • Joker (+1250)
  • The Irishman (+6600)
  • Jojo Rabbit (+9000)
  • Marriage Story (+10000)
  • Little Women (+15000)
  • Ford v Ferrari (+25000)

If a bettor wanted to wager on Parasite to win Best Picture, then it would cost a bettor $100 to possibly win back $300 ($100 wager + $200 winnings). If a bettor wanted to wager on 1917 to win instead, then it would cost a bettor $167 to possibly win back $267 ($167 wager + $100 winnings).

Oscars Betting Line


Oscars Betting Sheet

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