Poker Math Formulas
Poker math can be daunting for some people, but with practice it will become second nature even to the ultra math-impaired. A very beneficial poker math calculation is the Break-even %.
Poker Math Formulas Pdf
The Break-even % (BE%) gives you mathematical proof of how often your bet, call or raise has to succeed in order to break-even; or in other words to be mathematically neutral in Expected Value (0EV). If it works more than the BE% it’s +EV, and it if works less often than the BE% it’s -EV.
Poker Mathematics. Poker is a game of skill and using the ability to read situations and opponents to give you the advantage in each hand you play. It is also a game of mathematics, where you should be able to calculate the odds of either you or your opponent winning the hand in any situation.
Poker Math: Calculating the break-even % for a bluff
The formula of the probability of an event is: Probability Formula. Or, P (A) = n (A)/n (S) Where, P (A) is the probability of an event “A”. N (A) is the number of favourable outcomes. N (S) is the total number of events in the sample space. Note: Here, the favourable outcome means the outcome of interest. This includes formulas for counting combos, factoring in blockers, pot odds, implied odds, breakeven percentage, and even expected value (EV). The goal is that by learning the formulas and then putting them to use to answer questions, you’ll develop the ability to make closer estimations more quickly.
It’s a very simple formula:
BE% = Risk / (Risk + Current Pot)
For example, a 1/2 pot bluff bet needs to work 33% of the time to break-even:
BE% = .5 / (.5 + 1) = .5/1.5 = 33%
To show an example in actual $’s, a $50 bluff bet into a $100 pot:
BE% = $50 / ($50 + $100) = $50/$150 = 33%
So, if your opponent will fold 33% of the time, it’s a break-even bet. If he folds more often than 33% it’s +EV and you’re printing money. If he folds less than 33%, then your bet is -EV and is costing you money.
What About Bluff Raises?
The break-even math for bluff raises works the same way and uses the same formula above. For example, your opponent bets $50 into the $100 pot, making the pot now $150. You decide to bluff raise to $150. How often does this $150 bluff raise have to work to break-even?
Poker Probability Math
BE% = $150 / ($150 + $150) = $150/$300 = 50%
So, if you feel that he’ll fold greater than 50% of the time, then you’re making a +EV play.
And What About Calling Bets?
Same calculations again. In the example above, you think you’ve got your opponent beat and he bets $50 into the $100 pot on the river. How often does your $50 call have to win the now $150 pot to break-even?
Pot Odds Math
BE% = $50 / ($50 + $150) = $50/$200 = 25%
So, if you win over 25% of the time then it’s a +EV call, but less than 25% and it’s a -EV call.
Some Common Break-even %’s
Poker Math Formula
You should be able to run all this math on your own, but here are some of the most common BE %’s that you should have memorized.
How can I use this poker math to my advantage?
When bluffing opponents, hand reading and putting them on a range will help you to estimate how often they’ll fold to your bet. This takes a ton of off-the-felt practice, but by doing hand history reviews, putting your opponents on ranges and assessing how these ranges hit different flops you can estimate how strong your opponent’s holdings are and estimate how often he’s folding. Off-the-felt practice leads to better game time decisions.
In the case of calling opponent’s bets, you can assess (through hand reading, assigning a range and considering the board) whether your hand will win beyond that break-even point to determine whether a call is in order.
I hope you found this information useful. If you have any questions or comments, please leave them below.
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