2018: Los Angeles Rams, 8-0. 's dominant offense helped it break out to an 8-0 start before. The Knights finished the regular season 12–0, the football program's first ever undefeated regular season, second 12-win season, and won the 2017 American Conference Championship. The Knights season culminated in a 2018 Peach Bowl win over Auburn. The effort came just two years after an 0–12 winless season (2015). Visit ESPN to view the 2020 NFL Standings. It’s never too early to overreact to NFL win totals. After week two, there are 11 undefeated teams — a record high for the league. But some squads don’t look as good as their wins show.

1. Undefeated Nfl Teams In History
2. What Team Is Undefeated In The Nfl 2019
3. What Team Is Undefeated In The Nfl 2017 Preseason

Raise your hand if you had the Kansas City Chiefs as the only undefeated team left in the NFL after four weeks. Fine. Now put your hand down because you are a liar. The Chiefs already beat the Patriots — in Foxborough — the Eagles, Chargers and now the Redskins. That’s four pretty good teams.

Now let’s talk about the Chiefs going undefeated. It’s not going to happen. The Chiefs don’t dominate teams — except apparently the Patriots. When teams play their opponents close, they are more likely to lose a game because one mistake ruins everything. That and no one really trusts Andy Reid to not make a boneheaded clock management mistake.

The Chiefs play at Houston, home against Pittsburgh, at Oakland, home for Broncos, then at the Cowboys. It’s very doubtful they’ll get through those teams without a loss. Houston is now a new team with Deshaun Watson at the helm. The Steelers don’t play great on the road, but can definitely beat Kansas City if the game turns into a shootout. Derek Carr is most likely out versus the Raiders, so that’s a gift. The Broncos have a top of the line defense that can beat any team on any random week.

But that’s it. The Chiefs are the only threat to the 1972 Dolphins. It seems a little early for there to be no other undefeated teams. The usual suspects already lost. The Falcons lost at home to Buffalo this week. The Patriots lost the dream in Week 1. The Steelers blew a game in Chicago. The Packers and Seahawks already lost. It’s only the Chiefs. No one saw that coming.

Is it possible for an undefeated team to be flying under the radar? The Pittsburgh Steelers might be doing just that. The Steelers moved to 10-0 with a 27-3 drubbing of the Jacksonville Jaguars in Week 11, but they aren't the biggest story in the NFL this year. They aren't even the current Super Bowl favorites, as the odds still favor the Kansas City Chiefs.

Let's take a detailed look at the Steelers. How good are they really, and how much is their schedule an issue? Where do the Steelers stand among all the teams to start 10-0 in recent NFL history? And what are Pittsburgh's chances of completing a perfect regular season at 16-0?

How good is Pittsburgh?

Despite its unblemished record, it's hard to find an advanced metric that has Pittsburgh as the best team in the NFL this season. Football Outsiders' DVOA ratings list the Steelers third, trailing New Orleans and Tampa Bay. In ESPN's FPI ratings, the Steelers are third, trailing Kansas City and Tampa Bay. FiveThirtyEight's ELO ratings also put the Steelers third, and Pro Football Reference's Simple Ratings System also has them third.

There are two major reasons why advanced metrics do not have the Steelers ranked first. First, Pittsburgh has escaped a lot of close games. Based simply on points scored and allowed, we would project the Steelers to be 8-2 rather than 10-0. Five of their wins have come by a touchdown or less, including wins over lesser teams such as Denver and Dallas.

And that's the second reason why advanced metrics don't put the Steelers first: schedule strength. Seven of Pittsburgh's first 10 wins have come over teams with losing records. Six of those teams are ranked 25th or lower in DVOA right now. The average Steelers opponent this year has a DVOA of -12.6%. That's the second-easiest schedule faced by any 10-0 team since 1985, trailing only the 2005 Indianapolis Colts.

None of this means the Steelers aren't a good team, of course. They are a very good team! In particular, the Steelers have a great defense. Even after adjusting for opponent strength, the Steelers rank No. 1 in defensive DVOA through Week 11. They are No. 1 against the pass and No. 4 against the run. The Steelers are powered by an excellent front seven, which ranks first in pass rush win rate and eighth in run stop win rate. The Steelers are also above average (eighth) in special teams DVOA.

The problem comes with the offense, which is just average (17th in DVOA) and the worst of any of the 10-0 teams since 1985. The running game is particularly problematic, ranking just 29th in DVOA, including 31st on third or fourth down. The passing game is a bit better, currently ranking 13th. The opposite of the rushing game, the passing game peaks on third and fourth down, ranking fourth on those downs. The Steelers' passing game is built around an excellent wide receiver trio of JuJu Smith-Schuster, Diontae Johnson, and rookie Chase Claypool, but doesn't have as much success beyond that. Running back James Conner has a negative DVOA as a receiver, as do both tight ends Eric Ebron and Vance McDonald.

Yet even with that average offense, the Steelers don't stand out in the history of 10-0 teams quite as much as you might think. Many of the other teams that started 10-0 got there with an easy schedule and/or close wins. A month ago, a lot of the talk on Twitter tagged Pittsburgh as the worst team to ever start undefeated. They weren't. And now that we're a few more games into the season, they still aren't. Let's take a look at the past 35 years of teams that started 10-0 to see how Pittsburgh compares to other teams that have accomplished this feat.

Where the Steelers rank against other 10-0 teams

Here's a look at the 14 teams to start 10-0 since 1985, from the best DVOA through 10 games, to the worst DVOA in that span. How good were they, how did they finally lose a game, and how did their seasons eventually end? Note that our ratings begin with the 1985 season, so we can't rank the four previous Super Bowl-era teams to start 10-0: the 1969 Rams, 1972 Dolphins, 1975 Vikings, and 1984 Dolphins.

1. 2007 New England Patriots

DVOA through 10 games: 75.8% (1st)
First loss: Super Bowl XLII, 17-14 to New York Giants (13-6)
Final results: 16-0, lost Super Bowl (53.4% DVOA, 1st)

The 2007 Patriots, of course, did not lose a game during the entire regular season, with their first loss finally coming in one of the greatest upsets in Super Bowl history. Their DVOA rating through 10 games is miles ahead of any other team, showing just how much they dominated opponents in the first half of 2007. Even more impressive: New England played the toughest schedule of any of the 10-0 teams since 1985, based on the average DVOA of opponents after 10 games. The Patriots' first 10 opponents included the teams ranked second (Dallas) and third (Indianapolis) in DVOA, plus No. 9 San Diego and No. 10 Cleveland.

Undefeated Nfl Teams In History

New England kept winning in the second half of the regular season, but it wasn't quite as impressive. Their DVOA over the final six regular-season games was 'only' 21.5%, sixth in the league for that stretch, and three of those last six wins came by just a field goal.

2. 1991 Washington

DVOA through 10 games: 61.8% (1st)
First loss: Game 12, 24-21 to Dallas Cowboys (6-5)
Final results: 14-2, won Super Bowl (56.9% DVOA, 1st)

Washington's perfect season was spoiled at home by an up-and-coming Dallas team. In fact, this Cowboys win was the start of a six-game Dallas winning streak that included a playoff victory. Dallas won despite losing Troy Aikman to an injury in the third quarter. Michael Irvin caught nine passes for 130 yards and a touchdown against the legendary Darrell Green. At the end of the game, Mark Rypien led a 43-second touchdown drive to make it 24-21, but Washington could not recover the onside kick.

Washington lost one more game, a meaningless Week 17 contest with Philadelphia in which Rypien sat at halftime, then Washington went on to win the Super Bowl. This is the greatest team ever in 35 years of Football Outsiders DVOA, leading the league in both offense and special teams DVOA, while finishing third on defense.

3. 1985 Chicago Bears

DVOA through 10 games: 53.2% (1st)
First loss: Game 13, 38-24 to Miami Dolphins (8-4)
Final results: 15-1, won Super Bowl (52.5% DVOA, 1st)

Chicago made it to 12-0 before its only loss, which came in one of the most famous regular-season games in NFL history. (You can watch it here.) The game came on Monday Night Football and the Dolphins were seen as protecting the legacy of the undefeated 1972 team. Dan Marino threw for 270 yards including two touchdowns to Nat Moore and a 42-yard touchdown to Mark Clayton. This was only the third game all season, including the playoffs, in which the Bears gave up more than 20 points. After a close win in their next game, 17-10 over Indianapolis, the Bears demolished the rest of their schedule. They outscored playoff opponents 91-10 on the way to winning Super Bowl XX.

4. 1998 Denver Broncos

DVOA through 10 games: 44.9% (1st)
First loss: Game 14, 20-16 to New York Giants (5-8)
Final results: 14-2, won Super Bowl (32.6% DVOA, 1st)

The 1998 Broncos are a reminder of just how hard it is to go undefeated. It's not just the good teams on your schedule that can beat you. The New York Giants were 5-8 and ranked 26th in DVOA when they welcomed the 13-0 Broncos to the Meadowlands. They walked out with a 20-16 victory after Kent Graham found Amani Toomer for a 37-yard touchdown with just 57 seconds left. John Elway got the Broncos down to the Giants 30 in the final seconds, but the Broncos couldn't connect on the last pass.

Denver lost again on the road the next week, to a playoff-bound Miami team, but that was the Broncos' last loss of the season. They beat Seattle in Week 17, then marched through the playoffs and won their second straight Super Bowl.

5. 1990 New York Giants

DVOA through 10 games: 41.2% (1st)
First loss: Game 11, 31-13 to Philadelphia Eagles (6-4)
Final results: 13-3, won Super Bowl (30.8% DVOA, 1st)

Everything was set up for the 11-0 Giants to face the 11-0 49ers on Monday Night Football until both teams had to go and ruin it by losing in Week 12. For the Giants, that meant a loss in Philadelphia to Buddy Ryan's Eagles. The game was 14-13 Eagles at halftime, but the Giants were shut out in the second half. Randall Cunningham threw for 229 yards and two touchdowns, adding 66 rushing yards and a touchdown on the ground.

The Giants ended up losing that showdown with the 49ers the next week, and they lost to the Bills in Week 15 as well to finish the season at 13-3. They got revenge on both teams in the playoffs on their way to winning Super Bowl XXV. The Bills might have been a 6.5-point favorite in that game, but our DVOA ratings had the Giants as the best team in the league that year.

6. 2009 Indianapolis Colts

DVOA through 10 games: 36.1% (2nd)
First loss: Game 15, 29-15 to New York Jets (7-7)
Final results: 14-2, lost Super Bowl (17.0% DVOA, 8th)

Here's our first undefeated team that didn't top the DVOA ratings despite starting 10-0. The Colts (and the undefeated Saints, who we'll get to in a bit) sat a little bit behind the 7-3 Patriots after Week 11 of the 2009 season. However, this wasn't because the Colts were penalized for an easy schedule. In fact, the 2009 Colts were the only 10-0 team other than the 2007 Patriots who played an above-average schedule in their first 10 games according to average DVOA of opponents.

You might notice that there's a big difference between the Colts' DVOA after 10 games and where they finished the regular season. DVOA wasn't very impressed by the Colts' wins in Weeks 12-15, giving them a rating of just 11.3% during those four weeks. But things really dive-bombed at the end of the season. The Colts could have had a perfect regular season and gave it away to rest up for the playoffs. With the Colts' home fans booing the decision, Jim Caldwell pulled Peyton Manning and other key players with the Colts leading the Jets 15-10 at halftime of Week 16, and the Jets went on to win the game. Starters sat much of the Week 17 loss to Buffalo as well. Backup Curtis Painter's performance in those last two games is a big reason why the Colts' DVOA rating fell so far between their 10-0 start and the end of the season.

7. 2005 Indianapolis Colts

DVOA through 10 games: 35.4% (1st)
First loss: Game 14, 26-17 to San Diego Chargers (8-5)
Final results: 14-2, lost divisional round (33.4% DVOA, 1st)

At least this Colts team didn't pull its starters and essentially kick away a perfect season on purpose. Instead, these Colts got run over by the San Diego Chargers, who ranked second in DVOA through Week 11 of that season. The Chargers had a 16-0 lead early in the third quarter, but the Colts fought back to take a 17-16 lead near the end of the third quarter. Then the Colts had a hard time moving the ball in the fourth quarter, while the Chargers got a field goal, then an 83-yard touchdown run from backup running back Michael Turner. Manning threw a pick on the next drive, and that was it for the Colts' undefeated season.

With Manning on the bench to rest up for the playoffs, the Colts also lost their next game to Seattle, but backup Jim Sorgi led them to a win over Arizona in Week 17. Despite two games of Sorgi, the Colts led the league in DVOA for the season. But the wild-card Steelers, who finished fourth in DVOA, upset them in the divisional round to end the Colts' Super Bowl hopes. The 2005 Colts faced the easiest schedule on their way to 10-0, according to average DVOA of opponent. Five of the Colts' first 10 opponents in 2005 ranked in the bottom 10 of DVOA: San Francisco (32), Houston twice (31), St. Louis (28) and Tennessee (23). The Colts didn't face as many bad teams as this year's Steelers have, but San Francisco, the worst team in DVOA history, really drags the average down.

8. 2015 New England Patriots

DVOA through 10 games: 33.7% (1st)
First loss: Game 11, 30-24 to Denver Broncos (8-2)
Final results: 12-4, lost AFC Championship (22.6% DVOA, 6th)

This is the first team on our list that really crashed out after a 10-0 start. It started with a 30-24 overtime loss in Denver to the Brock Osweiler-led Broncos. Osweiler led an 83-yard touchdown drive with 2:31 left in the fourth quarter to put Denver on top. Tom Brady got the ball back with 1:09 left and took the Patriots 51 yards for a tying Stephen Gostkowski field goal. But the Broncos' stellar defense forced the Patriots to go three-and-out to start overtime (there was a Von Miller sack, of course) and then C.J. Anderson took a handoff 48 yards on third-and-1 to win the game.

The Broncos loss started a string in which the Patriots lost four of their final six games of the regular season. Three of those were one-score losses -- the Jets also beat them in overtime -- and the one double-digit loss came when they lost to 5-10 Miami in Week 17. That loss cost the Patriots the No. 1 seed in the AFC. The Broncos had the head-to-head tiebreaker, and it came back to bite the Patriots when they lost the AFC Championship Game in Denver.

9. 2009 New Orleans Saints

DVOA through 10 games: 33.2% (3rd)
First loss: Game 14, 24-17 to Dallas Cowboys (8-5)
Final results: 13-3, won Super Bowl (25.2% DVOA, 6th)

Here's another team that took a downturn after a 10-0 start, although it took an upturn once it got to the postseason. And the downturn really came after the Saints' 11-0 start, because they beat the Patriots handily in Week 12, 38-17. But the Saints' next two wins after that came by a field goal each, followed by three straight losses.

The first loss was nationally televised on a Saturday night, a home game against Tony Romo and the Cowboys. Dallas got out to a 24-3 lead and took that into the fourth quarter, when the Saints finally got the ball moving and scored two touchdowns. Nick Folk missed a 24-yard field goal that would have iced the game for Dallas, giving the Saints the ball back with 2:16 left. Drew Brees moved the ball all the way to the Dallas 42, but got strip-sacked by DeMarcus Ware with 12 seconds left to end the game.

The next week, the Saints blew a 17-0 lead and lost to Tampa Bay in overtime. Brees sat in Week 17, and the Saints lost to Carolina. But the Saints reversed the losing in the playoffs with a big win over Arizona, an overtime thriller against Minnesota and then their Super Bowl XLIV victory over Indianapolis.

10. 2020 Pittsburgh Steelers

DVOA through 10 games: 27.8% (3rd)
First loss/final results: To be determined

11. 2008 Tennessee Titans

DVOA through 10 games: 27.6% (2nd)
First loss: Game 11, 34-13 to New York Jets (7-3)
Final results: 13-3, lost divisional round (24.2% DVOA, 5th)

Before the current Steelers, the Titans had the worst offense of any recent 10-0 team. With Kerry Collins at quarterback, they ranked just 13th in offensive DVOA after 11 weeks. Still, only the 9-1 New York Giants were better in DVOA after Week 11 of the 2008 season.

The first Titans loss was pretty substantial, a 34-13 drubbing by Brett Favre and the Jets. (Remember when Favre played for the Jets? That really happened!) The Titans ended up losing two more games during the regular season: a narrow 13-12 loss to Houston and a 23-0 Indianapolis win in Week 17 in which both teams sat starters. In the playoffs, they hosted the Baltimore Ravens, who ended the season a little higher in DVOA (third). The Titans outgained the Ravens 391 yards to 211 but turned the ball over three times, leading to a 13-10 loss.

12. 2015 Carolina Panthers

DVOA through 10 games: 27.3% (4th)
First loss: Game 15, 20-13 to Atlanta Falcons (7-7)
Final results: 15-1, lost Super Bowl (25.5% DVOA, 4th)

The 2015 Panthers resembled the current Steelers because they almost rode close wins and an easy schedule to an undefeated season. Carolina started 14-0, but it ranked 29th in schedule strength at that point and had five wins by less than a touchdown. (Without opponent adjustments, the Panthers would have finished the season No. 1 in DVOA.) The Panthers finally lost in Atlanta in Week 16, the only regular-season game all year in which they failed to score 20 points. Atlanta took a 14-10 lead on a 70-yard Julio Jones touchdown in the third quarter and then solidified the win with two late field goals. Cam Newton had only 142 yards passing in the contest.

In the playoffs, Carolina had a close win over Seattle and then blew out Arizona in the NFC Championship with one of the most impressive single-game ratings in DVOA history. But the offense couldn't move the ball against the suffocating Denver defense, and the Panthers lost Super Bowl 50.

13. 2011 Green Bay Packers

What Team Is Undefeated In The Nfl 2019

DVOA through 10 games: 26.7% (2nd)
First loss: Game 14, 19-14 to Kansas City Chiefs (5-8)
Final results: 15-1, lost divisional round (26.2% DVOA, 2nd)

The 2011 Packers were the opposite of this year's Steelers. They had the best offense in the NFL through 10 games but were poor on defense, just 28th in DVOA. Green Bay's wins included a 42-34 shootout with New Orleans and a 45-38 barnburner against San Diego. Their DVOA was lower than expected because they played the second-easiest schedule in the league through 10 games, although just four of their wins were within a touchdown. Meanwhile, the 7-3 Houston Texans, with a defense led by rookie J.J. Watt, were the No. 1 team in DVOA through Week 11.

The Packers won three more games to start 13-0 before they finally fell to the Chiefs. Surprisingly, it wasn't the defense that let them down as much as the offense, which managed a season-low 14 points and 315 yards in a 19-14 loss. The Packers finished the season 15-1, even winning their final regular-season game with backup Matt Flynn under center. But in their first playoff game, the 15-1 Packers were shocked by the Giants, who had finished just 9-7 and 12th in DVOA. The Giants scored 37 against that subpar Packers defense and somehow coaxed the Packers into four turnovers, eventually going on to win Super Bowl XLVI.

14. 1990 San Francisco 49ers

DVOA through 10 games: 21.6% (7)
First loss: Game 11, 28-17 to Los Angeles Rams (3-7)
Final results: 14-2, lost NFC Championship (18.8% DVOA, 7th)

This is a surprising result if we're asking which team had the most 'fraudulent' 10-0 start. After all, the 49ers were coming off back-to-back Super Bowl titles and had some guy named Joe Montana playing quarterback. And yet, it's pretty clear the 49ers had the weakest 10-0 start of all teams since 1985.

The 49ers' schedule for their 10-0 start was the second easiest of that season, and the fourth easiest of the 14 teams listed here. Their record was riddled with close wins over bad teams. Five of the 49ers' 10 wins came by less than a touchdown, including 24-20 over the Packers (who finished 6-10) and 20-17 over the Browns (who finished 3-13). Six different teams had a better DVOA after Week 11, and the 49ers were way behind the 10-0 Giants and 9-1 Bears, who each had DVOA over 40%.

What Team Is Undefeated In The Nfl 2017 Preseason

The 49ers' first loss was a shocker, coming at home to a bad Rams team that pulled out to a 21-7 lead. The 49ers pulled to within 21-17 but couldn't score in the fourth quarter, and lost 28-17. They turned the ball over six times in the game, with three fumbles and three Montana interceptions. And remember that big game with the Giants in which both teams lost before they would have met at 11-0 on 'Monday Night Football?' The 49ers did pull off a close win in the big Week 13 showdown with the Giants, 7-3. Then the Giants got their revenge in the NFC Championship Game, 15-13, when New York famously knocked Montana out of the game.

Can Pittsburgh finish undefeated?

The good news for Pittsburgh fans is the Steelers are playing their best football now. Their four best performances by single-game DVOA have come over the past six games. But an undefeated season is very difficult. There's a reason that only one of the 13 teams listed above was able to finish the job and complete a 16-0 regular season. The Steelers still have four games left against teams in the AFC playoff race (although our metrics are not high on the Cleveland Browns, who rank only 22nd in DVOA). As past 10-0 teams demonstrate, even losing teams can hand an undefeated team its first loss. A Washington win over Pittsburgh is unlikely, but it's not impossible. A Cincinnati win is even more unlikely, but even that's not impossible.

Right now, Football Outsiders has Pittsburgh finishing the season 16-0 in 15.7% of our simulations. Here's a look at our current chances for Pittsburgh winning each game:

• Week 12 vs. Baltimore: 68%

• Week 13 vs. Washington: 84%

• Week 14 at Buffalo: 59%

• Week 15 at Cincinnati: 88%

• Week 16 vs. Indianapolis: 66%

• Week 17 at Cleveland: 71%

Note that these odds incorporate the usual historical home-field advantage even though home-field advantage has been much smaller over the past two seasons. Also, the Baltimore odds do not incorporate any chance of the Ravens losing players Thursday night to positive COVID-19 tests or close contacts; we know already that the Ravens' have lost running backs Mark Ingram and J.K. Dobbins.

The other problem for Pittsburgh: A perfect regular season doesn't guarantee a 19-0 perfect season with a Super Bowl title. Three of the four teams in NFL history with a perfect regular season didn't win the championship, including not just the 2007 Patriots but the 1934 and 1942 Bears. Even in simulations in which the Steelers go 16-0, we have them making it to the Super Bowl only half the time, and winning the Super Bowl 22.5% of the time.

The 2020 Pittsburgh Steelers certainly look very good, and they're in the driver's seat for the AFC's No. 1 seed. But there's still a lot of season left and a championship is far from guaranteed. They're certainly high in the mix for Super Bowl XLV, and there's not much more fans can ask for at this point in the season.